JPMorgan Strategist Who Predicted Biden Withdrawal Has Gloomy Outlook For EV Sector, Ukraine War

JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Michael Cembalest predicted that President Joe Biden would withdraw from the presidential race due to health reasons between Super Tuesday and the November election, passing the torch to a replacement candidate chosen by the Democratic National Committee. Cembalest's prediction came true as Biden recently announced his withdrawal, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. This development aligns with Biden's low approval rating despite significant job creation during his tenure. He also tested positive for COVID-19 recently.

Cembalest's "top 10 possible surprises for 2024" also included a grim outlook for the EV sector, citing backlash against driverless cars due to safety concerns and the decline in share prices for companies selling autonomous vehicle sensor technology like LiDAR. He pointed out the adverse impact of autonomous vehicle testing on emergency services and public safety, predicting that the sector would not rebound soon. Furthermore, he anticipated prolonged conflict in Ukraine, with no ceasefire expected this year, despite significant losses in Russian military personnel and equipment.

The strategist also warned of major power outages in US cities due to the retirement of dispatchable power generation and underinvestment in infrastructure. He highlighted the Midwest MISO region as particularly at risk and stressed the potential severity of natural gas outages, which could take weeks or months to restore. Additionally, Cembalest expected approval for an inhaled COVID-19 vaccine to minimize virus transmission, emphasizing its potential to produce mucosal immunity and reduce infection rates. He also noted headwinds for the global EV sector, with declining sales and market share for Tesla and other EV manufacturers amid cooling demand.  (Full story)

President Biden made his first phone call since exiting the 2024 Presidential Election, responding to demands for "proof of life" from politicians like Lauren Boebert, who criticized his lack of a public appearance. Biden, recovering from a mild COVID infection, assured the public of his health and commitment to his role until November. He called Kamala Harris's campaign headquarters, expressing gratitude for the team's efforts and emphasizing the importance of supporting Harris and maintaining their mission. Biden highlighted the campaign's achievements and reassured his continued dedication to advancing key policies and addressing urgent issues, including climate threats and the Gaza conflict.

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Alicia Romijn, a 28-year-old Sydney high school teacher and content creator, is grappling with an ever-increasing HECS debt despite consistent repayments. Initially borrowing $70,000 for her double major in Science and Bachelor's in Urban and Environmental Town Planning, followed by a Master's in Teaching, her debt has surged to $81,000 due to indexation, which ties loan increases to inflation and wages. Alicia expresses frustration over the lack of transparency regarding indexation's impact on student loans, a sentiment echoed by many in her online audience who share similar struggles. The unexpected jump in indexation rates, from 0.6% to 7.4%, has exacerbated the burden, making it challenging for her to envision ever being debt-free. Alicia fears this debt will impede her dreams of homeownership and financial stability, especially if she decides to start a family. Her story highlights a broader issue faced by many Australian graduates, with over 63% expressing significant concern about repaying their student loans and 12% believing they may never do so. Financial experts suggest exceeding minimum repayments when possible to mitigate the long-term burden of such debts. (Full story)

A Zoom event organized by Jotaka Eaddy, founder of the #WinWithBlackWomen network, attracted 44,000 Black women and raised over $1.5 million for Kamala Harris' presidential campaign. The call featured prominent speakers including Representative Maxine Waters, lawmakers Joyce Beatty and Jasmine Crockett, and Reverend Bernice King, who showcased strong support for Harris following President Joe Biden's announcement that he would not seek reelection. 

The event marked a significant moment in Harris' campaign, highlighting Black women voters' enthusiasm and strategic mobilization. The fundraiser's success underscores Harris' position as a key candidate against Donald Trump in the upcoming election. (Full story)

Warren Buffett's stock market valuation indicator, which divides the total market capitalization of all US stocks by the most recent quarterly GDP estimate, reached an all-time high of 200% last week, indicating extreme overvaluation of US stocks. This surpasses the previous peak of 197% in November 2021, after which the market entered a bear phase. The current total market cap of nearly $55 trillion is roughly double the annualized US GDP of about $27 trillion. 

Buffett has previously warned that such high levels signal significant risk, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble's peak. B. Riley's Paul Deitrich echoed this sentiment, predicting a potential 48% drop in the S&P 500 due to an anticipated recession and overvaluation driven by AI hype. He also noted the historically low dividend yield and high P/E ratios as warning signs. Meanwhile, Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus Investments suggested the indicator needs adjustment for modern economic conditions but still signals danger for investors in cap-weighted indices like the S&P 500. (Full story)